Resumo A globalização tem sido responsável pela elevação da exposição de empresas e países a riscos relativos a fatores cambiais. A literatura tem abordado a questão da volatilidade da moeda em países emergentes e desenvolvidos sem um consenso sobre tal dinâmica, bem como são escassos os estudos que estimam e situam o risco do real brasileiro. Dessa forma, o presente estudo teve por objetivo mensurar o risco da taxa de câmbio brasileira, bem como testar a hipótese de que existe uma diferença significante na volatilidade entre moedas de países emergentes e em desenvolvimento. Por meio do VaR paramétrico ajustado para distribuições de valores extremos, observou-se que o real brasileiro apresentou taxa de câmbio de maior risco. Os resultados também revelam que os pressupostos distribucionais não parecem apresentar nenhum padrão específico quando confrontados países emergentes e desenvolvidos, e também que países emergentes apresentaram menor volatilidade, denotando a preponderância de fatores externos ao mercado cambial na determinação do risco de algumas moedas.

Abstract Globalization has been responsible for increasing exposure to risks related to currency factors for companies and countries. The literature has addressed the issue of currency volatility in emerging and developed countries without a consensus on such a dynamic and there are few studies that estimate and place the risk of the Brazilian real. Thus, this study aimed to measure the risk of the Brazilian exchange rate, as well as test the hypothesis that there is a significant difference in volatility between currencies of emerging and developing countries. Through the parametric VaR set to extreme values distributions, it was observed that the Brazilian real presented at greater risk of exchange rate. The results also showed that the distributional assumptions do not seem to have any specific pattern when faced emerging and developed countries and also emerging countries showed less volatility, reflecting the preponderance of factors external to the foreign exchange market in determining the risk of some currencies.

Abstract Paper aims to measure the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Absorptive Capacity (AC) on productivity in Brazil. Originality no articles were found using the AC as moderator of FDI in Brazil. Research method the Malmquist Index was employed and the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) model was chosen, which has greater robustness for correcting the heterocedasticity and autocorrelation. Main findings productivity is more impacted by FDI than Economic Complexity. There is a two-year time lag to the impact of the FDI on productivity. The interaction between FDI and AC becomes positive only when experience and schooling are controlled. The number of PhD employees was better as proxy for AC than R&D workers. Implications for theory and practice there was no positive relationship between productivity and the number of higher education professionals.